The companies developing self-driving
cars say handing control over to the machines will make the future a far
better place. Once robot chauffeurs are here, they say, the number of
car crashes will plummet. Liberated from the need to keep our hands on
the wheel and eyes on the road, drivers will become riders with more
time for working, leisure, and staying in touch with loved ones. We’ll
free ourselves from the archaic model of the multi-car household. And we
won’t waste so much space parking the damn things.
Even the NHTSA, hardly a starry-eyed cheerleader for technological progress, says the advent of vehicles that drive themselves will provide “completely new possibilities for improving highway safety, increasing environmental benefits, expanding mobility, and creating new economic opportunities for jobs and investment.”
We’re already well on the way. Google’s fleet of self-driving cars has logged more than 700,000 miles without causing an accident. Audi let me pilot its sleek prototype from Silicon Valley to Las Vegas earlier this year. And just last week, the bonkers Mercedes-Benz robo-car concept was roaming San Francisco.
The McKinsey report, based on research by McKinsey analysts and interviews with industry experts, buys into this idea of gradual introduction, and divides its findings in three phases. In the first, which runs through 2020 or so, the impact of autonomous technology will be limited: While self-driving vehicles already have infiltrated industrial and controlled settings like farms and mines, passenger vehicles will remain in the prototype and testing phase. This jibes with the timelines laid out by the companies like Mercedes and Nissan, which plan to offer cars with autonomous features by 2020. Audi’s shooting for roughly the same date, and while Volvo is targeting 2017 for a large-scale, real-world test involving 100 customers.
Meanwhile, consumers will start to really get accustomed to the idea of giving up the wheel, and they’ll probably like it. Safety benefits should come quickly, as precursors to full autonomy have already had an impact: The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reports a 7 percent reduction in crashes among cars that have a basic forward-collision warning system. Include automatic braking features, and that number is 14 to 15 percent, according to Consumer Reports. More self-driving will mean bigger reductions, which is why autonomous features are a big part of Volvo’s plan to eliminate deaths and serious injuries in its cars by 2020.
And given how much time Americans waste in traffic—111 hours annually per driver, per a study by INRIX—that means anyone with one of these cars will be able to significantly boost their productivity.
More than that though, our entire idea of car ownership could change. Currently, cars sit unused about 95 percent of the time. That leaves a lot of room for improvement in terms of how we allocate resources.
We won’t stop buying cars altogether—people will still want the option to “independently drive and use the vehicle, and have fun doing so,” says Kaas— but we will buy fewer cars. Without the need for a human at the helm, one autonomous vehicle could take the place of two conventional vehicles: If Joan is going golfing and Joe needs to go shopping, a single car could drop Joan off at the club, swing back to the house to take Joe to the supermarket and back, then return to the club and get Joan. Kaas also predicts you could see the rise of private commuting services, shuttling customers around for a fee.
Even the NHTSA, hardly a starry-eyed cheerleader for technological progress, says the advent of vehicles that drive themselves will provide “completely new possibilities for improving highway safety, increasing environmental benefits, expanding mobility, and creating new economic opportunities for jobs and investment.”
We’re already well on the way. Google’s fleet of self-driving cars has logged more than 700,000 miles without causing an accident. Audi let me pilot its sleek prototype from Silicon Valley to Las Vegas earlier this year. And just last week, the bonkers Mercedes-Benz robo-car concept was roaming San Francisco.
The McKinsey report, based on research by McKinsey analysts and interviews with industry experts, buys into this idea of gradual introduction, and divides its findings in three phases. In the first, which runs through 2020 or so, the impact of autonomous technology will be limited: While self-driving vehicles already have infiltrated industrial and controlled settings like farms and mines, passenger vehicles will remain in the prototype and testing phase. This jibes with the timelines laid out by the companies like Mercedes and Nissan, which plan to offer cars with autonomous features by 2020. Audi’s shooting for roughly the same date, and while Volvo is targeting 2017 for a large-scale, real-world test involving 100 customers.
Meanwhile, consumers will start to really get accustomed to the idea of giving up the wheel, and they’ll probably like it. Safety benefits should come quickly, as precursors to full autonomy have already had an impact: The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reports a 7 percent reduction in crashes among cars that have a basic forward-collision warning system. Include automatic braking features, and that number is 14 to 15 percent, according to Consumer Reports. More self-driving will mean bigger reductions, which is why autonomous features are a big part of Volvo’s plan to eliminate deaths and serious injuries in its cars by 2020.
And given how much time Americans waste in traffic—111 hours annually per driver, per a study by INRIX—that means anyone with one of these cars will be able to significantly boost their productivity.
Beyond 2040
More than that though, our entire idea of car ownership could change. Currently, cars sit unused about 95 percent of the time. That leaves a lot of room for improvement in terms of how we allocate resources.
We won’t stop buying cars altogether—people will still want the option to “independently drive and use the vehicle, and have fun doing so,” says Kaas— but we will buy fewer cars. Without the need for a human at the helm, one autonomous vehicle could take the place of two conventional vehicles: If Joan is going golfing and Joe needs to go shopping, a single car could drop Joan off at the club, swing back to the house to take Joe to the supermarket and back, then return to the club and get Joan. Kaas also predicts you could see the rise of private commuting services, shuttling customers around for a fee.
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